With the eligibility criteria getting more demanding for pilots, the US airlines are having an acute shortage of pilots, not experienced after 1960s, what with more and more pilots due to retire shortly. According to the new federal policy, newly hired pilots to have at least 1,500 hours of prior flight experience (six times the current minimum) raising the cost and time to train new fliers in a time when pay cuts and more-demanding schedules already have made the profession less glamorous and unattractive.
Another federal safety rule, which will be introduced in 2014, will also impact on supply, by providing pilots with more rest time. This changed is expected to force passenger airlines to increase their pilot tanks by at 5%. U.S. pilots are making the decision to work for overseas carriers which is compounding the problem, many carriers are facing chronic shortages of aviators and pay an attractive salary to lure highly-trained U.S. captains.
"The signs of a global pilot shortage are mounting as airlines expand their fleets and flight schedules to meet surging demand in emerging markets," Boeing wrote in its long-term market outlook. "Asian airlines in particular are experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints." According to Boeing, during the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific demand will reach 183,200 pilots, with China accounting for 72,700. "Europe will need 92,500 pilots; North America, 82,800; Latin America, 41,200; the Middle East, 36,600; Africa 14,300; and the CIS 9,900."
Where will these new pilots be trained is the question arising now. Executive director of National Association of Flight Instructors (NAFI) Jason Blair and a member of NAFI Jonathon Freye have brought out a paper detailing how dramatically the pilot training industry in the US is going to change because of a mandatory legislation requiring an airline pilot to have at least 1500 hours and an airline transport pilot (ATP) certificate. With a recent release of an FAA notice of the proposed rule making, the legislation is headed towards becoming a regulation. The ATP requires at least 1500 hours of flight time and both the airlines captain and first officers would both have to carry them. The ICAO's multi-crew pilot licensing scheme requires only a minimum 240 hours of flight time and surprisingly the US legislation has come at a time when non US airlines are adopting the ICAO's scheme
The unexpected increase introduced by the U.S. Part 121 airline requirements is the compulsory minimum 250 hours of flying experience for ATP and bigger demands of 1,500 hours made on commercial pilots which is the major problem worrying Blair and Freye. The fallout of this would be most airlines will start hiring flight instructors as their pilots. This will undoubtedly lead to more and more instructors joining as commercial pilots and the new aspirants left high and dry.
In the white paper, they explained how new rules have been implemented and those rules will not support commercial airline pilots being trained by the flight training industry. Part 121 pilots will, therefore, not be guaranteed training from flight training professionals. The industry simply won't be able to train enough pilots or guarantee that they have the right amount of experience. Therefore, top flight training cannot be realistically achieved.
You might be aware of Boeing's strategy that foresees a requirement for not less than 4,140 new pilots for next 20 years in the US alone. This figure excludes general pilots flying for corporation and charter needs, instructors and other odd pilots. A revealing study was done by Blair and Freye recently which showed that pilot certificates given in the US fell from 156,955 in 1990 to 93,861 in 2009. And, commercial/ATP pilots are much less - 15,500 to 11,350 and 8,437 to 3,113 respectively - and their numbers have fallen steadily too during these years.
More worrisome perhaps is the small number of active certified flight instructors (CFIs), according to Blair and Freye. To measure whether flight instructors are active, they compared the total number of CFIs in the U.S. to the number of CFIs that have endorsed a pilot for a check ride in the previous five years. Their conclusion: only 13.8 percent of the 96,473 CFIs in the U.S. are actively teaching. And the ranks of new CFIs keep declining; just 4,348 were added in 2009, down from a high of 8,164 in 1991.
The white paper concluded that there is no feasible way to continuously supply qualified pilots demanded by the air carriers with the current status of the airline pilot training industry and industry standard training model. For the predicted pilot shortage, there is no single solution and this problem is acknowledged by the airlines, the FAA and the flight training industry but is being ignored by the policy makers. The FAA has acknowledged the need for creative approach to pilot training. Reduction in service to match a sustainable level of qualified airmen, finding alternative service if domestic airlines do not provide a level compatible with demand and developing a training process may be possible by an Interim solution but these solutions does not allow the system to be left as it is. Pilot shortage forecasts if becomes true while the license rates still decline then change will be inevitable
Another federal safety rule, which will be introduced in 2014, will also impact on supply, by providing pilots with more rest time. This changed is expected to force passenger airlines to increase their pilot tanks by at 5%. U.S. pilots are making the decision to work for overseas carriers which is compounding the problem, many carriers are facing chronic shortages of aviators and pay an attractive salary to lure highly-trained U.S. captains.
"The signs of a global pilot shortage are mounting as airlines expand their fleets and flight schedules to meet surging demand in emerging markets," Boeing wrote in its long-term market outlook. "Asian airlines in particular are experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints." According to Boeing, during the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific demand will reach 183,200 pilots, with China accounting for 72,700. "Europe will need 92,500 pilots; North America, 82,800; Latin America, 41,200; the Middle East, 36,600; Africa 14,300; and the CIS 9,900."
Where will these new pilots be trained is the question arising now. Executive director of National Association of Flight Instructors (NAFI) Jason Blair and a member of NAFI Jonathon Freye have brought out a paper detailing how dramatically the pilot training industry in the US is going to change because of a mandatory legislation requiring an airline pilot to have at least 1500 hours and an airline transport pilot (ATP) certificate. With a recent release of an FAA notice of the proposed rule making, the legislation is headed towards becoming a regulation. The ATP requires at least 1500 hours of flight time and both the airlines captain and first officers would both have to carry them. The ICAO's multi-crew pilot licensing scheme requires only a minimum 240 hours of flight time and surprisingly the US legislation has come at a time when non US airlines are adopting the ICAO's scheme
The unexpected increase introduced by the U.S. Part 121 airline requirements is the compulsory minimum 250 hours of flying experience for ATP and bigger demands of 1,500 hours made on commercial pilots which is the major problem worrying Blair and Freye. The fallout of this would be most airlines will start hiring flight instructors as their pilots. This will undoubtedly lead to more and more instructors joining as commercial pilots and the new aspirants left high and dry.
In the white paper, they explained how new rules have been implemented and those rules will not support commercial airline pilots being trained by the flight training industry. Part 121 pilots will, therefore, not be guaranteed training from flight training professionals. The industry simply won't be able to train enough pilots or guarantee that they have the right amount of experience. Therefore, top flight training cannot be realistically achieved.
You might be aware of Boeing's strategy that foresees a requirement for not less than 4,140 new pilots for next 20 years in the US alone. This figure excludes general pilots flying for corporation and charter needs, instructors and other odd pilots. A revealing study was done by Blair and Freye recently which showed that pilot certificates given in the US fell from 156,955 in 1990 to 93,861 in 2009. And, commercial/ATP pilots are much less - 15,500 to 11,350 and 8,437 to 3,113 respectively - and their numbers have fallen steadily too during these years.
More worrisome perhaps is the small number of active certified flight instructors (CFIs), according to Blair and Freye. To measure whether flight instructors are active, they compared the total number of CFIs in the U.S. to the number of CFIs that have endorsed a pilot for a check ride in the previous five years. Their conclusion: only 13.8 percent of the 96,473 CFIs in the U.S. are actively teaching. And the ranks of new CFIs keep declining; just 4,348 were added in 2009, down from a high of 8,164 in 1991.
The white paper concluded that there is no feasible way to continuously supply qualified pilots demanded by the air carriers with the current status of the airline pilot training industry and industry standard training model. For the predicted pilot shortage, there is no single solution and this problem is acknowledged by the airlines, the FAA and the flight training industry but is being ignored by the policy makers. The FAA has acknowledged the need for creative approach to pilot training. Reduction in service to match a sustainable level of qualified airmen, finding alternative service if domestic airlines do not provide a level compatible with demand and developing a training process may be possible by an Interim solution but these solutions does not allow the system to be left as it is. Pilot shortage forecasts if becomes true while the license rates still decline then change will be inevitable
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